Canada warns of oil export restrictions as trade tensions with U.S. rise

Canada may impose non-tariff measures, including restrictions on oil exports to the United States, if trade tensions with Washington escalate further, Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said Tuesday at CERAWeek.

As the largest oil supplier to the U.S., Canada ships about 4 million barrels per day, primarily to Midwest refineries reliant on its crude. Wilkinson also noted that tariffs on U.S.-bound ethanol are “absolutely” under consideration as part of potential retaliatory measures, particularly if Trump proceeds with plans to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods in April.

The warning follows Trump’s threat to double tariffs on imported Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, though he later backed down.

Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened a 25% surcharge on electricity exports to U.S. homes before agreeing to hold talks with U.S. officials. Alberta’s Energy Minister Brian Jean has pushed for de-escalation, offering alternative proposals to Washington. However, Canada has already threatened retaliatory tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. imports, with an initial $30 billion in goods identified for immediate action. U.S. ethanol, which has seen record exports to Canada, is among the key targets due to its competitive advantage from U.S. subsidies under the Renewable Fuel Standard.

CERAWeek is an annual energy conference organized by S&P Global

  • brings together global leaders, policymakers, executives, and experts from the energy, technology, and financial sectors
  • CERAWeek 2025 is taking place for March 10-14

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