• Prior was +2.7% (revised to +2.8%)

• PPI y/y +5.4% vs +5.4% prior
• Raw materials price index +0.6% m/m vs +7.7% prior
• Raw materials price index +8.6% y/y vs +8.0% prior

Normally, the Bank of Canada would give a lower reading like this some attention but with energy prices spiking, that won’t be the case this year and instead they will wait for March data and to see what will happen with the war.

The IPPI rose 0.4% month over month, a sharp deceleration from the 2.8% gain in January. Exclude energy and petroleum products and the index actually declined 0.4%. That tells you how narrow this move really was.

Energy did all the heavy lifting. Refined petroleum products surged 8.2% on the month, with diesel climbing 10.5% as Iran-US tensions escalated through the second half of February. That’s a geopolitical risk premium getting priced in, and it’s the kind of move that can unwind just as quickly as it materialized.

The easing of inflationary signals elsewhere are difficult to dismiss (at least pre-war). Primary non-ferrous metals fell 3.7% — their first decline since April 2025 — with silver and platinum group metals both retreating roughly 11%. Meat and dairy slid 5.9%, the steepest decline since July 2020, as poultry prices collapsed nearly 17% following Canada’s decision to lift its ban on Brazilian chicken imports.

On the raw materials side, the RMPI gained 0.6% but ex-energy it was down 1.1%. Metal ores declined 2.7% as Chinese iron ore stockpiles continued to build.

The canola story is worth watching — prices rose 6.3% after China announced a substantial reduction in tariffs on Canadian canola seeds effective March 1. A rare constructive development in the Canada-China trade relationship.

Year-over-year, gold and precious metals remain the dominant theme, with that group nearly doubling. But the broader picture is one where energy volatility is masking genuine softness in manufacturing prices.