• 61of 62 respondents forecast no change to interest rates next week
• 18 of the 61 respondents above see at least one 25 bps rate hike in Q2
• 40 of 57 respondents expect a 25 bps rate hike in Q3 instead
• July is the hot pick, with 26 of 37 respondents expecting a rate hike then
• 28 of 31 respondents expect Trump’s tariffs to negatively impact Japan’s economy

The forecast for March is very much in line with the market thinking at the moment, with policymakers likely to wait on more definitive conclusions from the spring wage negotiations. That is even if wages growth is very much expected to come in strongly.

Interestingly, there is only a small minority expecting a rate hike in either May or June with most expecting one to be in July next.

The current market pricing shows ~14 bps priced in for June with ~19 bps priced in for July.