- Pricing partly reflects global factors.
- Not all market pricing focused on UK.
- I am more concerned about supply side.
- Exchange rates haven’t gone as theory suggests.
- A falling dollar would be disinflationary for UK.
- Too early to say where dust will settle on dollar strength.
- There is no sign of shakeout in labour market yet.
- UK wage growth remains pretty high.
- Services points to inflation persistence.
- I am more worried about services inflation than wages.
- Tariffs are more of a disinflationary risk.
- Rise in inflation expectations worrisome.
- Neutral rate is higher than where it was.
- 3.25-3.50% neutral rate is not unreasonable.
The market is pricing 87 bps of easing by year-end and 99% probability of a 25 bps cut at the upcoming BoE meeting. The market’s pricing was of course driven by the US tariffs announcement and the following global market rout.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
