- Key factors for May rate decision were domestic, not tariffs.
- We have not seen particular inflation surprises.
- Labour market has loosened somewhat.
- Pay growth is above levels consistent with a 2% inflation target but lower than expected in February.
- Path of slowing pay growth is intact.
- I was undecided ahead of May policy decision.
The UK continues to have the highest core inflation rate among the major economies.
- I will not make any prediction about June rate decision.
They will hold rates steady of course and this is also what the market fully expects.
- Path for rates remains downwards.
- How far and how quickly rates will fall is shrouded in a lot more uncertainty.
- Uncertainty reflects international situation.
- Impact of fragmented global trade is negative for global growth.
- Uncertainty will delay UK businesses investment decisions.
- Impact on prices is ambiguous.
- We are not seeing the same impact on supply chains and inflation we did in 2021.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
