The Blue Jays announce that they have acquired right-hander Shane Bieber from the Guardians in exchange for pitching prospect Khal Stephen, according to announcements from both clubs. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the deal prior to the official announcement. Bieber is on the 60-day injured list and won’t require an immediate 40-man roster spot with the Jays.
Bieber hasn’t pitched in a major league game since April of 2024. Shortly after that, he required Tommy John surgery. He hit free agency after last season and re-signed with the Guardians. It was a two-year, $26MM deal but with the second season being a player option. He is making $10MM here in 2025 and then the option is valued at $16MM with a $4MM buyout.
That deal reflected the uncertainty around Bieber. He was clearly going to miss some time to start the 2025 campaign but was certainly a possibility for a second-half return. The deal allowed him to bank some notable earnings with the second year being a safety net for the event he experienced setbacks in his recovery. But if he came back and returned to his dominant form or even just a pretty good form, he would have the chance to return to free agency and secure a larger guarantee.
The uncertainty is still present now. Bieber started a rehab assignment in late May and was targeting a late June return. That didn’t come to pass. After just one rehab outing, he was shut down due to renewed elbow soreness. He restarted his rehab in the middle of July. He has made three rehab starts in the past few weeks, building from two innings in the first game, to three and four innings in the subsequent appearances. In his nine total innings over those three games, he allowed two earned runs with 16 strikeouts, one walk, one hit-by-pitch and six hits.
It’s a notable gamble by the Jays. Bieber is a real wild card, having not pitched in a big league game in so long. Even before the surgery, there were signs he was trending in the wrong direction. The contract adds an extra element of risk. If Bieber re-aggravates his elbow or suffers any other kind of serious injury, he’ll trigger his player option and stick around and put some more money on Toronto’s books for 2026. If he pitches well, he’ll leave, meaning the Jays have given up a big prospect for just a handful of starts from Bieber.
It’s also understandable why the Jays would roll the dice with Bieber. The Jays are surprisingly atop the American League East, something that almost no one predicted coming into the year. They shook off a cold March/April to be one of the best teams in baseball over the past three months. They have a record of 50-30 since the calendar flipped to May.
Coming into the year, it was expected that the Jays would be aggressive if they were anywhere near contention. The fan base wasn’t happy coming into 2025, on the heels of some disappointing playoff exits and a dismal 2024 season. Team president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract and general manager Ross Atkins is only signed through 2026. Many have wondered if they would be out of their jobs if the Jays missed the playoffs this year. Since they happen to be doing quite well, the team understandably wants to put a proverbial foot on the gas pedal.
They have been seeking upgrades to their pitching staff. However, their rotation is fairly steady, with a number of decent options. They currently have Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Eric Lauer taking the ball regularly. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt have been rocks all year long, with each of them having an ERA between 3.82 and 4.24. Lauer, a minor league signee, has stepped up to give the Jays 74 innings with a 2.68. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s been helped by a .239 batting average on balls in play and 82.2% strand rate, but it’s been a godsend for the Jays nonetheless. Scherzer has missed a lot of time due to injury but has been passable when on the mound, with a 4.98 ERA in seven starts.
It’s a solid group but once lacking a clear dominant ace-type guy that they would want taking the ball to start a playoff series. Guys like that are hard to acquire. There have been plenty of rumors surrounding MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan but all indications are that those guys are unlikely to move. Even if some club can acquire them, the asking price is sure to be massive.
Bieber has been that kind of guy in the past. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the 2019-2021 seasons, winning a Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 campaign. Over that three-year span, he tossed 388 1/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. By FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, he was one of the ten best pitchers in the majors.
Whether he can get back to that level is anyone’s guess. In 2022, he was still very effective, posting a 2.88 ERA in 200 innings. However, his strikeout rate dipped to 25%, still strong but below his prior levels. In 2023, he was limited by elbow injuries to 128 innings with a 3.80 ERA and and 20.1% strikeout rate. In 2024, he made two dominant starts before he required his aforementioned surgery.
More to come.
