The BLS preliminary estimate of nonfarm payrolls benchmark revision would:
- Decrease March 2025 level of employment by -911K or -0.6%.
The consensus was for a decline of -682K. Forecast range from -200K to -900K
The revision is the largest on record.
In 2024 it showed a revision of -548K
- Trade transportation -226,000
- Retail -126,000
The data shows a weaker employment picture than previously reported, and certainly would motivate the Fed to cut. It also highlights the data problem that has started to creep into the economic releases.
US yields remain higher, with the two-year up 2.2 basis points at 3.517%. The 10-year yield is also up 2.2 basis points at 4.068%.
US stocks are mixed with the Dow industrial average down -0.3%. The S&P is up 0.7% and the NASDAQ index is up 0.10%. Recall the NASDAQ index closed at a record level yesterday.
The S&P index record high close came in at 6507.95 on September 8. The current price is at 6500.70
