The bitcoin chart is interesting today.
A nice base has formed in the 60-65K range and now it’s broken out, chewing into the February rout.
Bitcoin daily chart:
Bitcoin daily
The rise today above last week’s high is a positive signal but it’s not clear if that’s a leading or lagging indicator. There was once a strong correlation between the Nasdaq and bitcoin but it was fractured last year and hasn’t reconnected. It’s still a risk-positive asset though and so it’s not a surprise that it’s moving higher as the market continues to believe that Trump is done with the Iran war.
There upshot is that there is a nice possible ‘catch-up’ trade in bitcoin if risk assets can hold.
That aligns nicely with today’s technical move, which doesn’t face much resistance until close to $90,000, or about a 13% climb. Also note the series of higher lows since early February and series of higher highs. Those are all positive indications.
On the sentiment side, I get the sense that bitcoin is bombed out. All the fast-money chasers have moved onto stocks, options and even to prediction markets. Familiarity with bitcoin is still high and access is still easy though. In a momentum-driven market, a catch-up trade in a risk positive environment can be a good catalyst.
There is also Iran and talk about paying tolls in bitcoin or stablecoins. That’s a use-case for crypto and could underpin bids. Unfortunately, there is a bit of a viral article out there claiming that one ship paid the crypto toll but was fired upon anyway. Supposedly, it wasn’t actually paid to Iran but to scammers how had impersonated Iran. So that’s not exactly encouraging for the ecosystem or adoption.
The downside risk is that bombing restarts in the war and risk assets are crushed again. Worse yet would be widespread attacks on infrastructure in Iran with Iran responding by bombing energy infrastructure throughout the region.
