Team Canada beat the USA in overtime last night to win the 4 Nations Challenge and that’s sure put Canadians in a good mood today.

Unfortunately, it will be a short-lived buzz with the economy on uneven footing, Trump threatening tariffs (and annexation) and still plenty of winter left. USD/CAD is up 21 pips today to 1.4195.

The main data point to watch today is Canadian retail sales for December at the bottom of the hour. The consensus is for a 1.6% rise in December and +1.8% ex-autos. The boost is partly due to an HST sales tax holiday that kicked off in December and extended through mid-February.

I will also be watching the advance January number carefully on signs of a struggle in that month.