If we look at the USDCAD daily chart, we can clearly see that uncertainty has been the name of the game. There’s been lots of volatility and short term trading opportunities yeah, but overall, the pair has been stuck in a range since December.

Yesterday, we got a report from CNBC citing one official saying that Canada/Mexico fentanyl tariffs are expected to be lifted. That sounds like a very plausible scenario given that Trump himself acknowledged recently that the two countries “have stepped it up a lot”. USDCAD fell following the CNBC report (1 hour chart below) but consolidated ever since as we got also a statement from Carney’s office talking about plans to fight unjustified trade action.

But the noise has not stopped there. Overnight, we got a Canadian media report saying that the country is likely to avoid countertariffs that risk Canadian jobs and price hikes. We are now very close to the announcement and it’s best to ignore all the noise and wait for the official release. The CAD will likely appreciate massively in case we get positive news.