Barclays expects the US dollar to maintain positive momentum into 2026, supported by improving risk sentiment and a robust domestic investment outlook. In a research note, the bank says the dollar has proven resilient even as markets grapple with uncertainty over AI valuations, corporate earnings and the returns on large-scale investment spending.

• argues that massive US artificial-intelligence capital expenditure plans will be “economically, geopolitically and competitively transformational” for the currency,
• AI-driven investment cycle, it says, should bolster the dollar through stronger productivity, higher growth potential and sustained global demand for US technology and infrastructure,
• adds that easing concerns over Federal Reserve independence, reduced tariff risks and ongoing fiscal support all reinforce its constructive USD view.

Together, these factors create conditions for continued dollar strength and a more stable backdrop for risk assets heading into 2026.