The AUDUSD is once again flirting with its 100-day moving average, currently near 0.62917, and the risk is that history repeats. The last two breaks above this key technical level failed to hold, both stalling at 0.6390 before rotating back lower. Today’s attempt showed even less momentum, with the high reaching just 0.6340 before sellers leaned in and the pair reversed.

If the pair can’t hold above the 100-day MA, attention will shift back toward downside support targets. The first is the 200-hour moving average at 0.6259, followed by the 100-hour moving average at 0.6220. A move below both would confirm that the recent break was another false start—and place sellers firmly back in control.

The technical picture remains precarious. Buyers need to not just break the 100-day MA, but sustain momentum above it. Without that, the bias stays bearish and the AUDUSD may just be “doing it again.”

Key levels:

• Resistance: 0.62917 (100-day MA), 0.6340, 0.6390

• Support: 0.6259 (200-hour MA), 0.6220 (100-hour MA)