The Australian dollar is up 30 pips to 0.6521; that’s just 17 pips from last week’s high. If that level can break, it will bring AUD/USD to the highest levels since November.

In focus are US-China trade talks and the implications for global growth if the world’s two-largest economies can repair their relationship. Notably, AUD/USD is right in the middle of the trading range since September and could plausibly re-test either side depending on the outcome.

That said, I don’t think we will get a binary response this week. Instead, it will either be slow progress or the lack thereof. But when you look at the chart, the steady rising trends since January (though interrupted by the Liberation Day drop) is evident. There is a solid series of higher highs that can continue with a small gain from here.

Backing up the bullish case is the lack of resistance in US (and international) stock indexes, which have some clear sailing ahead of all-time highs and are currently trading at the best levels of the day.

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