Via National Australia Bank, the see less easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia:
- continue to see the need for the RBA to return the cash rate to a neutral stance over coming months
- but have lifted our terminal rate expectation to 3.1% (from 2.6%)
- the lift is in recognition of a more modest offshore headwind
Along a similar line, Societe Generale like the AUD/USD:
- economic growth expectations for Australia in 2025 are ovedrtaking those for the USthe recent appreciation of the AUD is not yet reflecting this shift in relative growth expectations
- the disconnect from bond yields for AUD and other FX means that growth expectations are likely to play a larger role in driving FX trends
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
