Few, if any, would have picked the Houston Rockets to be the second seed for the upcoming West playoff battles.

In fact, there’s not many who would have picked the Rockets to be among the top six in the conference.

The reality is Houston is 49-27 on the season and looking like one of the deepest squads in the entire league. This is a team that has won 12 of its last 14 games and peaking at the right time.

Ime Udoka has built an identity of physicality and toughness that has opponents groaning when they see the Rockets on the schedule and aching in pain by the end of the game no matter the result.

When you have defenders like Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, and Tari Eason, you’re bound to cause nightmares and bruises in equal measure. Jabari Smith isn’t anyone to sneeze at on that side of the ball, either.

Yes, there are offensive concerns but Alperen Sengun became an All-Star this season while Jalen Green has found the path to greater consistency. With a defense as suffocating as Houston’s, there’s enough offense on board to get over the line. It’s happened often enough to win 49 out of 76 games thus far.

They also got to the semis of the NBA Cup, beating the Golden State Warriors in a thrilling quarterfinal before coming up short against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Okay, so we know who these Rockets are on the surface. Let’s take a deeper look into what that tells us about who they’ll be in the playoffs.

During their 7-game winning streak, the Rockets rank 2nd in offensive rating (122.1), 4th in defensive rating (107.5) and 1st in Net Rating (14.6). 🚀 pic.twitter.com/cY6mawOg9L

— NBA (@NBA) March 19, 2025

How Real Is The Defense?

Houston ranks third in defensive rating this season, only behind the Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic.

What tells us more about the Rockets is that they rank seventh in defensive rating when facing top 10 offenses. Still very good, but not quite in that elite category. In the West, they lag behind the Los Angeles Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Warriors, and Thunder.

There’s reasons for that. For one, they foul more — or at least get called for more fouls. The effective field goal percentage they allow also increases from an overall rate of 52.7 percent to 55.9 percent. Simply put, good offenses are generally better at creating good shots as well as making them. They are generally also more adept at getting to the free-throw line for some easy ones.

Which West opponents are in the top 10 offensively? Oklahoma City, the Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, and Minnesota Timberwolves. There is a small chance the Rockets match up with the Grizzlies in the first round but a big one that it ends up being the Wolves.

That would be sub-optimal. The season series ended 2-2, but between the size and physicality the Wolves can bring and a true closer in Anthony Edwards, this would be a very difficult playoff matchup for the Rockets.

Is The Offensive Process Problematic?

Let’s start by recognizing that the Rockets actually have the ninth best offensive rating in the league. Learn about their method and it’s fair to wonder if it will actually be sustainable in the playoffs.

That high offensive efficiency is standing on a pillar of offensive rebounding, an area where they rank first in the league. The Rockets rank 25th in effective field goal percentage. They miss a lot of shots and they go chasing after them on the glass. What happens when a team meets their physicality and can keep them off the glass?

Again, Minnesota, with the likes of Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, Edwards, Naz Reid, and Jaden McDaniels will be more than up for that challenge.

As we saw against the Lakers and at different points of the season, the late-game offense is an issue. Houston ranks just 19th in offensive rating in the clutch (defined as games within five points or fewer with five minutes remaining). As a result, the team has a negative net rating in these scenarios.

Having discussed both the offense and defense, an important stat to consider is that the Rockets have gone 19-16 against plus-.500 teams. That may not seem great but it’s very good. In fact, it’s the third-best record in the West and the fifth-best record in the league against plus-.500 teams.

Only the Thunder (27-8) and Lakers (19-15) are better in the West, along with the Cleveland Cavaliers (24-8) and Boston Celtics (21-11) in the East. The Lakers went ahead by virtue of beating the Rockets in a fun game Monday night.

JALEN GREEN HAS THE ROCKETS ASCENDING IN HIS LAST 10 GAMES:

🚀 25.8 PPG
🚀 6.3 RPG
🚀 4.5 APG
🚀 9-1 record

He has Houston leading the race for No. 2 in the Western Conference! pic.twitter.com/CwY1I4N6t0

— NBA (@NBA) March 31, 2025

Will Playoff Inexperience Matter?

The only players on the Rockets with notable playoff experience are Fred VanVleet, Steven Adams, Jeff Green, and Dillon Brooks.

VanVleet won a championship with the Raptors in 2019 and Jeff Green got himself a ring in 2023. Adams has been to the conference finals once and Brooks has been part one playoff series victory.

None of Sengun, Green, and Thompson having any postseason experience to look back on is certainly significant. There is almost always a rite of passage to making a deep playoff run and they will do very well to play like they’ve been there before.

Moreover, a first-round opponent that could be one of the Wolves, Clippers, or Warriors would be the best and worst thing that could happen to this team.

On the one hand, it will be an extremely difficult matchup to come out of. Edwards and the Wolves are fresh off a conference finals run last season, the Clippers are looking better by the day as Kawhi Leonard returns to form, and the Warriors with Jimmy Butler in the mix have looked a completely different team.

On the other hand, a playoff series against that type of opponent is exactly what could accelerate this young team’s growth in the long-term.