A week after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, markets started to realize the conflict might drag on. On Monday morning, Brent crude briefly jumped above $113 per barrel, while S&P 500 futures opened deep in the red. The picture wasn’t much brighter elsewhere either — European and Asian stocks also suffered.

The good news is that as the day went on, interventions helped push oil prices down to around $82 per barrel. The bad news is that most were only verbal, so the effect could be temporary. In fact, by the next day, Brent was trading above $90 per barrel again.

Which of the proposed measures could realistically help keep oil prices down?

Starting with the potential release by G7 countries of 300–400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, in theory, this could offset supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf — but only for two to three weeks. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted for longer, pressure on oil prices would quickly return.

The problem is that the biggest holders of oil reserves among the G7 — the U.S., with about 415.4 million barrels in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (as of February 27), and Japan, with roughly 260 million barrels in government reserves (as of the end of December) — might be reluctant to release large amounts of oil just to temporarily bring down global prices. There’s no guarantee that prices wouldn’t quickly surge again.

So, while such a move could help stabilize prices in the short term, its effect would likely be temporary.

As for the U.S. potentially easing sanctions to stabilize the oil market, there have already been some steps in that direction. On March 5, the U.S. Treasury announced a 30-day waiver allowing Indian refineries to purchase Russian oil, which could help ease part of the supply deficit. That said, it’s important to remember that Russia is still operating in a wartime environment, and its refineries are frequently targeted by drone attacks, which creates additional uncertainty around supply.

Venezuelan oil could also help, but export volumes there remain limited, largely due to technical and infrastructure constraints.

So the tools are there, but their effectiveness remains uncertain. The best way to bring oil prices down would, of course, be an end to the conflict. And after Donald Trump said on Monday that things are moving in that direction, although perhaps not this week, it seems like things are going in that direction, but later, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps dismissed the claim that the conflict is nearing an end.

The conclusion? Also, so far we’ve seen just verbal interventions, but they suggest the U.S. is still worried about high oil prices and will try to keep them in check. So, bull traders in oil should be cautious.