As the oil price hits $107 a barrel, investors will be casting envious looks at BP (LSE: BP) shares. They look primed to rise while many FTSE 100 companies struggle.

That already shows in the numbers. Underlying profit more than doubled to $3.2bn in the first quarter of 2026. The Iran war started on 28 February, so the impact only really landed in March, the final month of the quarter. That raises an obvious question. Will Q2 be an absolute stormer?

Can BP keep riding the oil price surge?

I think it probably can. And not just because crude prices have soared, allowing producers to sell oil at a premium. The Middle East conflict has created huge volatility, which has boosted BP’s trading arm. Management called its Q1 trading performance “exceptional”.

BP’s refining operations are also firing on all cylinders, helped by stronger demand for diesel and jet fuel. The shares have responded in style. BP’s up almost 25% in 2026 and 46% over 12 months. With a trailing yield of 4.6% on top.

Any Stocks and Shares ISA investor holding BP will be thrilled with that, as it may offset losses elsewhere. Diversification at its best. But another question nags at me. Is it too late to buy BP today?

As I write, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. If that continues, the world could face a summer of oil shortages. There’s talk of crude hitting $140, $150 or even $200 a barrel. In some corners of the market, we’re almost there. Traders now pay close to $150 for immediate physical delivery of certain crude grades. But if you think that sounds like a cast-iron case to buy BP shares today, I’d urge caution.

What could knock BP shares off course?

BP produces roughly 411,000 barrels a day across Iraq, Oman and the UAE. It can’t profit from oil it can’t transport. And there’s another threat.

Politicians may also look at BP’s soaring profits and decide to tighten that windfall tax. That would prove popular with voters grappling with higher petrol and energy bills.

The BP share price also dances to Donald Trump’s tune. One social media post can send crude prices soaring or slumping. If Hormuz reopens, traders could start pricing in lower oil prices again, dragging BP shares down. This is not a one-way bet.

BP’s profits also swing wildly from year to year. Check out at its annual net income for the past five years.

• 2025 – $54m
• 2024 – $390m
• 2023 – $15.2bn
• 2022 – ($2.49bn)
• 2021 – $7.56bn

That net loss in 2022 was down to a $24bn write-off as it exited Russia’s Rosneft following the Ukraine invasion. All that may explain BP’s temptingly-low forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1. Analysts forecast a yield of 4.7% this year, rising to 4.9% in 2027. That’s also tempting.

I bought BP in September 2024 and I’m delighted I did. Would I buy it today? Personally, I’d tread carefully. The BP share price could go anywhere from here. Commodity stocks move in cycles, and right now we’re closer to the top than the bottom.

I’ll be keeping a close watch on BP though. Another buying opportunity could present itself at any moment. If you need the diversification this stock offers, I suggest you keep your eyes peeled too.