Goldman Sachs notes that the US jobs data this week should continue to show signs of weakening but not to a point of a collapse. The firm estimates non-farm payrolls to underwhelm slightly at +60K with the risks being skewed lower due to seasonal negative bias in the initial prints for August.
On the unemployment rate, they see that rising to 4.3% amid further loss of momentum in the labour market in general. As for wages, they see average hourly earnings matching estimates at +0.3% m/m. They attribute the modest increase to favourable calendar effects.
Overall, Goldman Sachs sees the data as being one that is supportive of the Fed cutting rates in September but might still offer up a debate on the timing of rate cuts; depending on how other developments play out.
