2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Methodology

This bracket prediction is based on:

• Trends from past successful March Madness teams (experienced guards, elite big men, coaching, roster age).

• Advanced metrics (KenPom-style efficiency ratings, NET, Strength of Schedule).

• Under-seeded teams that are stronger than their seed suggests.

• Momentum, injuries, and teams playing with extra motivation.

No betting odds were used.

First Round Results

• South Region:

  • (1) Auburn beats (16) ALST/SFPA

  • (8) Louisville beats (9) Creighton

  • (5) Michigan beats (12) UC San Diego

  • (4) Texas A&M beats (13) Yale

  • (11) North Carolina beats (6) Ole Miss

  • (3) Iowa State beats (14) Lipscomb

  • (10) New Mexico beats (7) Marquette

  • (2) Michigan State beats (15) Bryant

• West Region:

  • (1) Florida beats (16) Norfolk State

  • (8) UConn beats (9) Oklahoma

  • (12) Colorado State beats (5) Memphis

  • (13) Grand Canyon beats (4) Purdue

  • (6) Missouri beats (11) Drake

  • (3) Texas Tech beats (14) UNC Wilmington

  • (7) Kansas beats (10) Arkansas

  • (2) St. John’s beats (15) Omaha

• East Region:

  • (1) Duke beats (16) AMER/MSM

  • (9) Baylor beats (8) Mississippi State

  • (12) Liberty beats (5) Oregon

  • (13) Akron beats (4) Arizona

  • (6) BYU beats (11) VCU

  • (3) Wisconsin beats (14) Montana

  • (7) Saint Mary’s beats (10) Vanderbilt

  • (2) Alabama beats (15) Robert Morris

• Midwest Region:

  • (1) Houston beats (16) SIUE

  • (9) Georgia beats (8) Gonzaga

  • (5) Clemson beats (12) McNeese

  • (13) High Point beats (4) Purdue

  • (11) Xavier beats (6) Illinois

  • (3) Kentucky beats (14) Troy

  • (7) UCLA beats (10) Utah State

  • (2) Tennessee beats (15) Wofford

Second Round Results

• South:

  • (1) Auburn beats (8) Louisville

  • (4) Texas A&M beats (5) Michigan

  • (3) Iowa State beats (11) North Carolina

  • (2) Michigan State beats (10) New Mexico

• West:

  • (8) UConn beats (1) Florida

  • (12) Colorado State beats (13) Grand Canyon

  • (6) Missouri beats (3) Texas Tech

  • (7) Kansas beats (2) St. John’s

• East:

  • (1) Duke beats (9) Baylor

  • (13) Akron beats (12) Liberty

  • (6) BYU beats (3) Wisconsin

  • (2) Alabama beats (7) Saint Mary’s

• Midwest:

  • (1) Houston beats (9) Georgia

  • (5) Clemson beats (13) High Point

  • (11) Xavier beats (3) Kentucky

  • (7) UCLA beats (2) Tennessee

Sweet 16 Results

• South:

• West:

• East:

• Midwest:

Elite Eight Results

• (1) Auburn beats (2) Michigan State: Auburn’s ability to control the tempo and shut down Michigan State’s scoring runs proves decisive. Michigan State struggles to create consistent offense against Auburn’s perimeter defense.

• (6) Missouri beats (8) UConn: Missouri’s shooting overwhelms UConn, forcing the defending champs into a comeback mode they can’t complete. Missouri controls the pace and keeps UConn on the back foot.

• (1) Duke beats (2) Alabama: Duke executes better in the final minutes, using their size and defensive versatility to contain Alabama’s perimeter scoring. Alabama’s inability to adjust late costs them.

• (1) Houston beats (7) UCLA: Houston’s rebounding dominance and defensive intensity wear down UCLA, which struggles to keep up in a physical battle.

Final Four Results

• (1) Auburn beats (1) Duke: Duke’s young core struggles with Auburn’s depth and defensive intensity. Duke stays in it with big plays but can’t sustain scoring against Auburn’s relentless defensive pressure.

• (1) Houston beats (6) Missouri: Houston slows down Missouri’s offense and capitalizes on second-chance points. Missouri can’t generate open looks against Houston’s aggressive perimeter defense.

Championship Game

(1) Auburn beats (1) Houston

• A defensive battle with both teams struggling to establish an offensive rhythm early. Auburn’s perimeter pressure limits Houston’s three-point shooting.

• Houston fights back by controlling the tempo and winning on the glass, but Auburn counters with well-timed defensive stops.

• In the second half, Auburn’s balanced offense finds more consistency, while Houston hits a cold stretch from the field.

• Auburn’s depth and late-game execution seal their first-ever national championship.

Breakdown

Cinderella Runs

• (6) Missouri to the Final Four – A program turnaround built on elite shooting and balanced scoring.

• (12) Colorado State to the Sweet 16 – A hot-shooting mid-major that took out Memphis and Grand Canyon.

• (13) Akron to the Sweet 16 – Pulled off back-to-back upsets before running into Duke.

Biggest Upset

Final Four

• (1) Auburn

• (1) Duke

• (1) Houston

• (6) Missouri

Winner

Auburn wins their first-ever national championship with a deep, veteran-led squad that thrives in high-pressure situations.