The Netherlands could have approximately 20% fewer new cases of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and strokes by 2050, if all Dutch citizens were to consume two pieces of fruit daily and refrain from eating processed meat such as sausages and hamburgers. This is the conclusion of research conducted by Wageningen University & Research (WUR). The researchers published their findings in eClinicalMedicine.

Most people know the guidelines: consume two pieces of fruit and 200 grams of vegetables daily, opt for whole grain products, and limit the intake of red and processed meat. However, not everyone adheres to these guidelines. But what if they did? What would be the impact on our health? Researcher Ming-Jie (Frederick) Duan and his colleagues investigated this for the Dutch population.

Health benefits

The scientists examined the effects of individual dietary recommendations provided by the Health Council of the Netherlands. The greatest health benefits appear to come from two adjustments: eating more fruit and eliminating processed meat. According to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Dutch currently eat only half of the recommended amount of fruit and nearly 40 grams of processed meat per day.

By eliminating processed meat, 22% of new type 2 diabetes cases and 21% of coronary heart disease cases could be prevented by the year 2050. If everyone were to eat two pieces of fruit daily, the number of strokes in the Netherlands would decrease by over 18%.

“That may not seem like much, but it represents a significant number of people,” Duan emphasizes. In comparison: at present, more than one million people in the Netherlands are living with type 2 diabetes.

To make a hypothetical forecast of public health in 2050, Duan and his colleagues used data from previous studies. The RIVM food consumption survey provided insights into the average Dutch diet. The researchers found that Dutch citizens still do not consume sufficient vegetables, fruit, and legumes, while their intake of sugary drinks and red and processed meat remains too high.

“From earlier studies, we know how certain food groups influence the risk of diseases such as diabetes and heart disease,” explains Sander Biesbroek, last author of the publication. By combining this knowledge with current consumption patterns, the researchers calculated how many disease cases could theoretically be prevented if the population adhered to dietary guidelines.

Adjusting policy

According to the Wageningen study, encouraging Dutch citizens to follow dietary guidelines could be highly beneficial. Not only for their personal health but also in terms of reducing the strain on the health care system and lowering medical costs. However, drastically changing eating habits is challenging, Biesbroek acknowledges.

The widespread availability and promotion of unhealthy and highly processed foods makes it difficult for people to make healthier choices. Therefore, Biesbroek advocates for policy measures that improve the food environment or stimulate healthy eating.

“This could be achieved by reducing taxes on healthy products while increasing taxes on unhealthy products such as processed meat,” suggests the assistant professor.

The Wageningen study also examined the effects of other food groups included in the Dutch dietary guidelines. To a lesser extent, the researchers found that consuming adequate amounts of nuts and seeds can reduce the risk of coronary heart disease and diabetes, while increasing whole grain consumption could prevent 10% of strokes. Eliminating processed meat from the diet also results in a modest (10%) reduction in bowel cancer and stroke cases.