The thing about the US being on a path to bankruptcy is that every time there is a climb in Treasury yields, the investing world holds is breath. In addition, the politicization of the Fed threatens to unhinge long-term inflation expectations and drive up the term premium.
Thankfully, this week isn’t the reckoning. After UK 30s hit the highest since 1998 (Treasury 30s were trading in the high 6s then), the market began to fret. It led to a broad rise in global yields. Earlier today, US 30s touched 5%, which is a pain point.
However the mood turned after the poor JOLTS jobs openings number. That sentiment was further solidified by the Beige Book late today, which highlighted stagnation in the economy. With that, 30s are 11 bps from the highs and down 7.2 bps on the day to 4.89%. That’s not quite back to Friday’s lows but it’s another bullet dodged.
