China’s export growth likely slowed in the first two months of the year due to Lunar New Year disruptions and mounting U.S. trade pressures.
Economists expect:
- Exports to have risen 5% year-on-year, down from December’s 10.7% growth
- Imports likely increased by 1%, maintaining the previous pace.
- China’s January-February trade surplus is expected to rise to $142.35 billion
Note that China’s General Administration of Customs publishes
combined trade data for the first two months of the year, in order to smooth out distortions caused by the timing of the long Lunar New Year holidays.
Trade tensions between China and the U.S. have escalated, with the White House imposing an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, doubling previous levies. In response, Beijing announced tariffs of 10-15% on $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural and food products and imposed investment restrictions on 25 American firms. China has warned of further countermeasures if tensions rise.
China has set a 5% economic growth target for the year while expanding its budget deficit. Analysts warn that continued tariff escalations could weaken China’s export strength and make a resolution with Washington increasingly difficult. China’s January-February trade surplus is expected to rise to $142.35 billion, with official trade data set for release on Friday.
