Morgan Stanley has shifted its Fed outlook, joining other analyst firms in forecasting a September rate cut.

Justin had the news earlier:

The change follows Powell’s Jackson Hole emphasis on labour market risks, a notable departure from his earlier focus on stubborn inflation and strong employment. The bank now expects two cuts this year — September and December — followed by steady quarterly 25bp reductions through 2026, bringing rates down to 2.75–3.0%.

This marks a major shift from its previous view that policy would remain on hold until March 2026 before easing more aggressively.