The USD is mostly higher to kickstart the new trading day/week

Categories: Forex

August 25, 2025

The day after the Jackson Hole settlement, the US dollar as rebounded higher as markets has walked back some of the dovishness. The odds of a cut in September is rising to around 85% but was higher on Friday. The US yields are also rebounding a bit with the two-year up about 3 basis points the 10-year is up half that at 1.5 basis points.

In the video above, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

It is a holiday in the UK today. So economic activity was limited to the IFO business climate. It beat expectations:

Ifo Business Climate (Aug): 89.0 (BEAT; exp. 88.6, prior 88.6)
Current Conditions: 86.4 (MISS; exp. 86.7, prior 86.5)
Expectations: 91.6 (BEAT; exp. 90.3, prior 90.7; revised 90.8)

Market implications: The improvement in the expectations component points to resilience in manufacturing and a more upbeat Q3 outlook, helping offset weaker current conditions. EUR sentiment is slightly supported as the data shows stabilisation despite lingering trade uncertainty.

This week, the focus will be on Nvidia’s earnings which will be reported on Wednesday after the close. Expectations are for $1.00 EPS on Revenues of $45.94BB. A year ago the EPS the minute $0.68 (+47% from year ago) with Revenues that $30.04B (+53% from year ago).

Other key events this week:

Tuesday, Aug 26
- 2:30pm: CAD – BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
- 9:30pm: AUD – CPI y/y (Forecast 2.3%, Prev 1.9%)
Thursday, Aug 28
- 8:30am: USD – Prelim GDP q/q (Forecast 3.1%, Prev 3.0%)
- 8:30am: USD – Unemployment Claims (Forecast 231K, Prev 235K)
Friday, Aug 29
- 8:30am: CAD – GDP m/m (Forecast 0.2%, Prev -0.1%)
- 8:30am: USD – Core PCE Price Index m/m (Forecast 0.3%, Prev 0.3%)
Saturday, Aug 30

Today:

New-home sales for the month of July will be released at 10 AM with expectations for 0.630 million versus 0.627 last month. Existing home sales last week came in a better than expected at 4.01 million versus 3.92 million estimate.

US stocks are trading lower in premarket trading