• Prior month -$98.4B
• International trade balance (Goods and services) -$131.4B vs -$127.4B estimate
• Good trade balance for January -$155.57B vs -$153.2B preliminary. Last month -$122B

Details:

• January exports: $269.8B (+$3.3B from December)
• January imports: $401.2B (+$36.6B from December)
• Goods deficit: Increased by $33.5B to $156.8B
• Services surplus: Increased by $0.2B to $25.4B
• Year-over-year deficit: Increased by $64.5B (+96.5%)
• Year-over-year exports: Increased by $10.6B (+4.1%)
• Year-over-year imports: Increased by $75.2B (+23.1%)

Looking at the imports more closely:

• Imports of goods: Increased $36.2B to $329.5B in January
• Imports of goods on a Census basis: Increased $36.2B
• Industrial supplies and materials: Increased $23.1B
  • Finished metal shapes: +$20.5B
• Consumer goods: Increased $6.0B
  • Pharmaceutical preparations: +$5.2B
  • Cell phones & household goods: +$1.2B
• Capital goods: Increased $4.6B
  • Computers: +$3.0B
  • Computer accessories: +$1.2B
  • Telecommunications equipment: +$1.1B
• Net balance of payments adjustments: Decreased $0.1B
• Imports of services: Increased $0.4B to $71.7B in January
  • Charges for intellectual property: +$0.2B
  • Other business services: +$0.1B
  • Travel: -$0.1B

On the export side:

• Exports of goods: Increased $2.7B to $172.8B in January

• Exports of goods on a Census basis: Increased $2.8B

• Capital goods: Increased $4.2B

  • Civilian aircraft: +$1.1B
  • Semiconductors: +$0.7B
  • Computers: +$0.5B
  • Civilian aircraft engines: +$0.5B

• Consumer goods: Increased $1.7B

  • Pharmaceutical preparations: +$0.8B
  • Jewelry: +$0.6B

• Other goods: Decreased $1.3B

• Foods, feeds, and beverages: Decreased $1.0B

• Net balance of payments adjustments: Decreased $0.1B

• Exports of services: Increased $0.6B to $97.0B in January

  • Financial services: +$0.2B
  • Telecom, computer & information services: +$0.1B
  • Other business services: +$0.1B
  • Transport: +$0.1B
  • Maintenance & repair services: +$0.1B
  • Government goods & services: -$0.3B

The goods trade deficit is soaring as companies adjust to the proposed tariffs and increase the import of goods before they go into effect. This could lead to choppy data going forward depending on how the economy reacts to a slower economy, inflation, uncertainty or to changes in policy too (will the Whack a Mole tariffs on/tariffs off scenario). In addition, what is the impact of US exports? Will countries boycott US goods abroad?

The deficit at record levels will give Pres. Trump ammunition to tell the public how deficits are at record levels..