The GBPUSD surged higher, breaking through a series of key resistance levels. The rally cleared the 50% midpoint of the decline from the July 1 high at 1.3463, followed by the 100-hour moving average at 1.3468, and extended to test the 200-hour moving average at 1.3505. The 200-hour moving average now serves as a key risk level for buyers—a move back below it would undermine today’s bullish breakout.
The pair is currently hovering around the 61.8% retracement of the July 1 move lower at 1.3539, with traders testing both sides of the level. Further resistance lies ahead at a well-defined ceiling between 1.3576 and 1.3592, an area reinforced by swing highs from July 23–24 and August 13–15, where sellers consistently capped upside attempts.
A sustained push above this ceiling would mark an important technical shift, reinforcing the bullish bias and opening the door for additional upside momentum. Conversely, failure to hold above the 200-hour moving average would be seen as a setback for the breakout.
Taking a longer-term view, this week’s corrective move to the downside briefly pushed the price below its 100-day moving average, a development that tilted the outlook more bearish from a broader perspective. Heading into the Chair’s speech, the pair was hovering right around that key average, leaving the market at a crossroads. However, the sharp rebound higher effectively cast the vote for a weaker dollar. Looking ahead, the ability to hold above those recent lows near the 100-day moving average strengthens the bullish backdrop, with that zone now serving as an important technical floor.
