The latest negotiated wages data for the Eurozone comes in at 3.95% in Q2, and that is up from 2.46% in Q1. After having held higher throughout 2024, the ECB could take comfort from softer pressures in Q1 to ease policy. But the latest numbers here might not be to their liking all too much, as it is also higher than the ECB wage tracker forecast of 3.4% in Q2 this year.
The ECB is continuing to monitor this space in hopes that wage pressures are continuing to moderate after having risen back in 2023. The latest figure here definitely keeps policy in check, with the ECB already seen pausing through the summer.
As a whole for this year though, the ECB wage tracker forecast is estimating wage pressures to be at 3.2%. So, we’ll see how that plays out later in Q3 and Q4 this year.
