MUFG says the biggest obstacle to an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting would be a sharper-than-expected rebound in US inflation over the summer. Investors will be watching this week’s July CPI and PPI releases for signs that higher tariffs are filtering through to prices.

The bank cautions that a significant upside surprise on inflation could not only delay policy easing but also halt — or even reverse — the recent weakening trend in the US dollar.

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I should clarify my headline:

• MUFG warns hot CPI could derail Sept Fed cut, Dollar jumps, sparking leak speculation.
• The USD jumped on Monday. Did hotter than expected CPI data leak?

Errrr…. the clarification is I haven’t seen any speculation on this, its just me 😉