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Canada July employment change -40.8K vs +13.5K expected

  • Prior +83.1K
  • Unemployment rate 6.9% vs 7.0% expected
  • Prior 6.9%
  • Full-time employment -51.0k vs +13.5k prior
  • Part-time employment +10.3k vs +69.5k prior
  • Participation rate 65.2% vs 65.4% prior
  • Average hourly wages +3.3% vs +3.2% prior

Excluding the unemployment rate, this is a weak report. The agency noted that overall, there has been little net employment growth since the beginning
of the year, and the number of employed people in July was little
changed compared with January.

The Canadian dollar weakened across the board as traders increased rate cut bets with the September meeting now standing at 38% probability vs 33% before the data. The BoC will likely need stronger reasons to cut in September given the higher underlying inflation.

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