The GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 rose to 2.5% from 2.1% on August 1. It is still early in the quarter estimates. As a result the volatility can be increased. In their own words. Nevertheless, the Atlanta Fed does have an increase reputation of getting pretty close to the data released:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 5, up from 2.1 percent on August 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.6 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively, to 2.0 percent and 6.9 percent, more than offset a decline in the nowcast in the contribution on net exports to GDP growth from -0.30 percentage points to -0.36 percentage points.
The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 7. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
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