The initial growth estimate for Q3 GDP is out from the Atlanta Fed. The 2nd quarter GDP was released yesterday at 3.0%. The Atlanta Fed did pretty good with their estimate at 2.9%.Their model seems to be the gold standard. The market economists were forecasting 2.4%.
In the initial growth estimate for Q3, they see growth at 2.3%. Of note is that it’s early, and their model incorporates data point after data point after data point. So the volatility is high, especially at the beginning. As the time goes by, the volatility can ease a bit as more data is accumulated.
Nevertheless in their own words they keep it simple:
- The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on July 31. The first estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis was 3.0 percent, 0.1 percentage point above the final GDPNow nowcast.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, August 1. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
