Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 44 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- ECB: 14 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 46 bps (88% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- BoC: 14 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA: 59 bps (83% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBNZ: 35 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 8 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 19 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
We haven’t seen much change in expectations as the markets await the central bank policy announcements and key economic data like the US NFP and the US CPI.
In the big picture, the main theme has been the tariffs trade since April 9 but that is now likely approaching the peak as everything got priced in and we already know that we’ll either get new deadlines or deals in the 10-20% tariff range.
Another driver has been the Trump’s bill, and that is also behind us. So, the next major driver should be the Fed. Economic data and Fed’s guidance will likely be the next main theme for the rest of the year.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
