Reuters reports — citing an EU source — that Trump didn’t send a letter today to the bloc. That’s no big surprise as the sides appear to be in intensive discussions around a trade deal.

The thing is, I just can’t imagine any path to a smooth agreement on an EU-US deal. That’s just not the way Trump operates. The thrives on drama, threats and brinksmanship.

Given the highly complex structure of the EU, it’s a doubly difficult deal to negotiate and the EU is one of the few places that has some decent leverage against the US.

I love this chart from BCA highlighting Trump’s negotiating strategy. At best, we’re in Stage 4 with the EU right now but it’s possible we’re only in Stage 2/3.