However, the firm adds a caveat in saying that “if there is a benign outcome in US-EU trade talks, we will abandon our forecast of a July cut”.

Regardless, it’s still an interesting call. That especially after the ECB has sent quite a clear message on pausing through the summer at least. As things stand, markets are pricing in a ~90% probability of the ECB keeping rates unchanged for the 24 July policy decision.

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