Goldman Sachs says a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel has emerged in Brent crude prices, following the recent climb to $76–77/bbl. In a note released Wednesday, the bank said the premium reflects heightened Middle East tensions and potential supply disruptions.
Goldman maintains its base case forecast for Brent to decline to around $60/bbl in Q4, assuming no material supply interruptions. However, it flagged scenarios that could justify significantly higher prices:
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In a lower Iran supply scenario, Brent could spike just above $90/bbl.
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In more severe tail-risk scenarios, where regional oil output or shipping is disrupted, prices could surge further.
The bank said the current premium appears justified given these downside risks, even if the base case remains relatively benign.
Info via Reuters.
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