AI image
The Fed decision is coming up and the chance of a shift on rates is nearly nil; it’s also looking like there won’t be any changes coming soon. That could all change with a shift in Fed communication today but we’re not holding our breath as all indications are that policymakers want to see how the trade war unfolds.
The market is pricing in just a 1.2% chance of a cut today but that rises to 14.8% for the July 30 meeting.
Where it starts to get interesting is September, at 74.8% odds of a cut. For the October meeting, a cut is fully priced in with a 21% chance of a second cut by then.
For year end, there are 47 bps in easing priced in. That’s flirted with two cuts or less for that past two weeks as economic data has rolled in.
By September 2026, the market is pricing in 107 bps in easing.
These numbers are likely to shift of the Fed’s dot plot but that’s only temporary as
ForexLive.com
is evolving into
investingLive.com, a new destination for intelligent market updates and smarter
decision-making for investors and traders alike.
