Fitch Ratings has lowered its 2025 outlook for the global oil and gas sector to deteriorating, pointing to rising OPEC+ production, expanding non-OPEC+ supply, and the drag from U.S. tariffs.

• The agency now expects oil demand to rise by just 800,000 barrels per day—down from a previous forecast of over 1 million—and has cut its oil price estimate to $65 a barrel from $70.

Although some tariff relief has emerged, uncertainty continues to suppress consumption. Fitch added that while geopolitical tensions could support prices, the prevailing supply overhang remains a key headwind. Still, most energy firms are seen as financially stable, buoyed by strong balance sheets and disciplined spending following previous high-price cycles.

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