Last month featured a wave of predictions about $40 oil after OPEC+ announced fresh production hikes but it hasn’t unfolded that way. For one, there is increasing optimism about global growth in light Trump’s climb-down on Liberation Day tariffs.
In addition, the actual barrels that have flowed into the market have been smaller than feared. The influential May secondary sources report from Reuters showed OPEC output up just 150k bpd in the month, less than the 441K announced. A portion of that is compensatory cuts for previously over-producing but Saudi Arabia and the UAE pumped less than allowed.
Notably though, Reuters highlighted that there is some real uncertainty around the actual level of production, particularly regarding Iraq and the UAE.
Technically, there is the risk of an upside break here with not much standing in the way of $70/barrel.
WTI crude daily
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