- Three-year ahead expected inflation 3.0% vs 3.2% prior
- Five year inflation 2.6% vs 2.7% prior
- Home price rise seen at 3.0% vs 3.2% prior
- Food prices seen +5.5% — highest since Oct 2023
- Outlook on job market improved in May
- Expectations of missing debt payments fell
- Full report
This is a good sign for the Fed but they have been nearly unanimous that they won’t cut rates until the tariff uncertainty has cleared.
This is also a notable signal for stock markets:
The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.6 percentage point to 36.3%, remaining well below the trailing 12-month average of 38.7%.
These tend to be a counter-indicator so a bearish stance from the public should be bullish.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
