The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its key interest rate at 2.75% this week, with 11 of 13 surveyed economists forecasting no change (Wall Street Journal survery).

• While unemployment is rising and domestic demand has slipped, stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP growth—boosted by tariff-avoidance spending—shows some economic resilience.
• Policymakers are prioritising rising core inflation, which hit 3.15% in April, above the BoC’s 2% target and its fastest pace in nearly a year.
• Trump’s move to double U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium (key Canadian exports) has raised caution around the inflation outlook and policymaking.

Though a cut is unlikely this week, most economists expect further easing later this year, possibly starting in July if domestic weakness persists.

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The announcement is due at 0945 US Eastern time:

• Bank of Canada Governor Macklem’s news conference follows 45 minutes later

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