Fed pricing has substantially shifted since the peak of angst about growth, tariffs and inflation two weeks ago. At the time, the market was pricing in 131 bps in easing through the April 29, 2026 scheduled FOMC meeting.

Today, that has dropped to 71 bps as the market cheers the sharp drop in US-China tariffs.

Even in the past day, the move has continued as a Sept cut has gone from fully priced in (and a tad more) to now at 91%.