In the European session, the only highlight is the BoE policy decision. The central bank is expected to cut by 25 bps bringing the bank rate to 4.25% with a 9-0 vote split (although Dhingra could vote for a 50 bps cut). This is widely expected as the BoE has been repeating that cutting once every quarter would be their preferred plan. The focus will be on the language and a potential change to the “gradual and careful” guidance.
In the American session, the focus will switch to the US Jobless Claims as it’s the most timely indicator of the labour market. Initial Claims are expected at 230K vs 241K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1886K vs 1916K prior. The market is unlikely to care much about the data unless we see a spike above the 260K level as that’s been the highest level reached since 2022 and could trigger fears of a deterioration in the labour market.
The main event of the day will be at 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET when Trump said that he would make a big announcement concerning a major trade deal. Reports are saying that it will be a framework for a trade deal with the UK.
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