A note from economists at Goldman Sachs, via a Bloomberg (gated) article.

In summary:

Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast for US core PCE inflation (the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy):

• 3.8% at the end of 2025 (from their previous estimate of 3.5%)
• 2.7% at the end of 2026 (previous estimate 2.3%)

These forecasts compare to the latest core PCE inflation reading at just 2.6%.

GS cite:

1. the US “dollar has weakened … in response to tariff news, amplifying rather than offsetting the direct impact of tariffs on prices”

2. “prohibitively high tariff rates on imports from China will shift import demand away from China toward countries with higher production costs but lower US tariff rates”

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