The worst-case scenario for the US economy at the moment — and this is something Powell hinted at yesterday — is a covid-style halt in trade. We don’t have to look back to far to see how that might play out as it led to shortages and inflation. It also might have led to widespread economic problems if not for massive financial and monetary stimulus (that isn’t likely to come this time).

Here is Craig Fuller the founder of FreightWaves:

Trucking market conditions are soft, but with imports and exports collapsing, the industry is in for a very rough season in coming months.

The winds are picking up, but the hurricane is still offshore.

Here is Ryan Peterson Founder and CEO of Flexport:

Two of our American customers devastated by the tariffs gave up and sold themselves to their Chinese factories in the last week.

He has also warned that thousands, and then millions, of American small businesses, including many iconic brands, will go bankrupt this year if the tariff policies on China don’t change.

Earlier this week I highlighted the crash in forward freight bookings.