The EURUSD surged higher today, breaking above both the 2023 swing high and the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2020 high — a key level near 1.1271. That breakout sparked strong upside momentum, sending the pair to a session high of 1.1473, just shy of the swing resistance zone between 1.1482 and 1.1516.

However, sellers leaned against that resistance, and the pair has since rotated back to the downside.

The current price is trading near 1.1328, with the recent low dipping to 1.1311, bringing it closer to the broken 61.8% retracement and prior 2023 high at 1.1271 — now a critical support zone.

What to watch

• Hold above 1.1271 → Keeps bullish momentum intact and validates the breakout

• Break back below 1.1271 → Signals a failed breakout and opens the door for a deeper pullback toward prior consolidation levels

The bulls had their shot. To stay in control, they need to defend 1.1271 — or risk handing the reins back to sellers.