Global business confidence plunged last week following Trump’s surprise tariff escalation and China’s swift retaliatory measures, according to Moody’s latest survey and reported by the firm’s Chief Economist Zandi—a barometer the firm has tracked for more than two decades.

For only the fourth time in the survey’s history, negative responses outnumbered positive ones across all nine questions—a pattern previously seen only during the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the brief U.S. banking turmoil two years ago.

Moody’s warns that unless sentiment rebounds swiftly, a recession may be imminent. The firm now pegs the probability of a downturn at 60%.