Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” may do little to ease the deep uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, warns Ethan Harris, former head of global economics at Bank of America and now an independent Fed watcher.
Trump speaks at 4pm US Eastern time (2000gmt) on Wednesday, April 2, 2025.
- Harris argues that the event is likely to be just another chapter in the prolonged U.S. trade conflict rather than a definitive turning point. Investors, businesses, and households hoping for clarity on tariffs may be disappointed
- even if the trade war were to end abruptly, Harris notes that the U.S. economy faces other headwinds, including potential fiscal tightening and slower job growth
- end of tariffs alone won’t reverse broader weakening tied to domestic policy shifts
As for retaliation, expect it:
- Harris points to activity at the World Trade Organization, where the U.S. has been the respondent in 168 trade disputes, compared with 135 cases where it acted as the complainant
- that imbalance, he suggests, underscores why retaliation from other countries is not only likely—but expected
