- Prior month -0.20 revised to -0.15
Details from the Chicago Fed:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago CFNAI rose to +0.14 in April from -0.15 in March, signaling an improvement in overall U.S. economic activity.
- The 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) edged up to +0.03 from +0.02.
- The CFNAI Diffusion Index increased to +0.06 from +0.03, pointing to somewhat broader economic improvement.
- Of the 85 indicators, 47 made positive contributions, while 38 were negative.
- 44 indicators improved from March, 40 deteriorated, and 1 was unchanged.
- Production-related indicators showed the biggest improvement, contributing +0.18 versus -0.13 in March.
- Sales, orders, and inventories improved to +0.02 from -0.03.
- Employment indicators slipped slightly to -0.02 from neutral in March.
- Personal consumption and housing weakened to -0.04 from neutral previously.
The move higher and above the MA is a positive. The index is also near the recent high range over the last 14 or so months (see chart above).
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly measure of overall U.S. economic activity and inflation pressures. It combines 85 economic indicators tied to production, employment, consumption, housing, sales, and inventories into one index. A reading above zero signals growth above the historical trend, while a reading below zero points to below-trend growth. Traders and economists watch the index as a broad barometer for the health of the economy and potential direction for Fed policy.
