• Business climate index 84.9 vs 84.2 expected
• Prior 84.4; revised to 84.5
• Current conditions 86.1 vs 85.1 expected
• Prior 85.4
• Expectations 83.8 vs 83.5 expected
• Prior 83.3; revised to 83.5

German business sentiment unexpectedly rises in May as both the current conditions and outlook indices also reflected an uptick compared to April. That being said, the readings are still relatively subdued as the headline estimate in April was the lowest since May 2020. So, the latest uptick here is just a marginal improvement on that.

Overall, the Middle East conflict continues to bring in dark clouds that are hanging over the German economy. And companies are still largely more pessimistic about how things will be in the months ahead.

For some context, the expectations index saw a sharp decline to the lowest since September 2023 last month. So, the marginal improvement here is not indicative of things getting much better with regards to the economic outlook.

And with how things are playing out in terms of business activity so far in Q2, the German economy looks headed for stagnation this quarter as stagflation risks continue to mount. From yesterday: German business activity falls for a second consecutive month amid rising cost pressures