- ILO unemployment rate 5.0% vs 4.9% expected
- Prior 4.9%
- Employment change 148k vs 104k expected
- Prior 25k
- Average weekly earnings +4.1% vs +3.8% 3m/y expected
- Prior +3.8%; revised to +3.9%
- Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.4% 3m/y expected
- Prior +3.6%
- April payrolls change -100k
- Prior -11k; revised to -28k
Those are a softer set of jobs numbers from the UK, with the payrolls change for April also looking rather poor. The 100k drop marks a 0.3% decline in the estimate of payrolled employees to 30.2 million. That comes with the jobless rate also continuing to tick higher, being up 0.5% on the year.
On payrolls, ONS is putting out a caveat though in saying that: “The April 2026 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month. The early April estimate is more uncertain because of the change of tax year.”
As for wages, there is a slight divergence with total pay increasing in the three months to March while regular pay is seen dropping in the three months to March. In real terms, the former accelerated to 0.8% (previously 0.6%) while the latter dropped further to 0.1% (previously 0.2%). Still, they continue to represent a slowdown since the latest peak in 2024.
With the Middle East crisis set to have more of an impact in the months to follow, it will be interesting to see how the UK labour market holds up. That especially with sectors such as manufacturing, transport, and logistics being squeezed by soaring fuel and shipping costs, while travel and aviation are hampered by reduced number of passengers.
